Philadelphia Union: Coming up on the Expansion Draft

With the new MLS expansion draft for the Vancouver and Portland teams coming up on November 24^th, I thought I’d share not only my predictions on which 11 players the Union will protect, but also my evaluations of each player on Philadelphia’s roster.

Expansion draft rules are:

1. Each team can protect 11 players
2. If a team loses a player in the draft, they can then protect a 12^th
3. Generation Adidas players are automatically protected (and don’t count towards the 11)
4. There are rules governing how many international players (those without even a green card) a team may leave unprotected.
1. My best understanding from reading un-confirmed rules is that Philadelphia would have to protect at least 1 international player (Roger Torres, Juan Gonzalez, Eduardo Coudet, or Toni Stahl).
2. Last year’s expansion draft rules would’ve required us protecting 3 international players (and could be a possibility for this year’s rules)
3. Apparently there was a tweet from Coach John Hackworth that said the Union doesn’t have to protect any international players. I doubt this unless we were given special treatment, but seeing as Seattle got no special treatment in last year’s expansion draft, I doubt we will.
4. I think ‘a’ is the most likely scenario so that is the focus of my main chart. I have my predictions for the other two situations following.

This is my ranking of the LIKLINESS of protectees of the Union. I should also mention that the categories of “Prev. Rank” and “Change” refer to my rankings in a mid-season article.

Most likely to be taken away:

1. Stefani Miglioranzi

I highly doubt we’ll lose two players, but:

2. Shea Salinas or Chris Seitz

Rank	Name	Pos	Status	Prev. Rank	Change	Acquired	2010 Guar. Comp.
1	Sebastien Le Toux	FW/MF		1	0	Expan Draft	$122,000
2	Danny Califf	DF	Captain	2	0	FA	$250,000
3	Roger Torres	MF	INT	3	0	Loan	$99,125
4	Brad Knighton	GK		9	5	Expan Draft	$40,000
5	Andrew Jacobson	MF		13	8	Expan Draft	$40,000
6	Justin Mapp	MF		6	0	Trade	$170,333
7	Jordan Harvey	DF		4	-3	Expan Draft	$56,250
8	Sheanon Williams	DF/MF	Rook	19	11	FA	(?) $40,012 (?)
9	Michael Orozco Fiscal	DF		4	-5	Loan	$200,000
10	Fred	MF		5	-5	Trade	$282,000
11	Alejandro Moreno	FW		14	3	Expan Draft	$158,125
12	Stefani Miglioranzi	MF		12	0	Expan Draft	$148,125
13	Shea Salinas	MF/DF		11	-2	Expan Draft	$40,000
14	Kyle Nakazawa	MF	Rook	7	-7	Rookie Draft Rd 3	$40,000
15	Juan Diego Gonzalez	DF	INT	15	-1	FA	$184,463
16	Eduardo Coudet	MF	INT	3	-12	FA	$185,000
17	Toni Stahl	DF/MF	Rook, INT	8	-9	Rookie Draft Rd 2	$110,300
18	Chris Seitz	GK		10	-8	Trade	$135,500
19	Nick Zimmerman	MF		17	-2	Expan Draft	$40,000
20	Cristian Arrieta	DF		16	-4	FA	$64,500
21	J.T. Noone	MF	Rook	18	-3	FA	$40,012
	Danny Mwanga	FW	Rook, GA			Rookie Draft Rd 1	$206,250
	Jack McInerney	FW	Rook, GA			Rookie Draft Rd 1	$116,417
	Amobi Okugo	MF	Rook, GA			Rookie Draft Rd 1	$158,000

Rank	3 INT	Rank	0 INT
1	Sebastien Le Toux	1	Sebastien Le Toux
2	Danny Califf	2	Danny Califf
3	Roger Torres	3	Brad Knighton
4	Brad Knighton	4	Andrew Jacobson
5	Andrew Jacobson	5	Justin Mapp
6	Justin Mapp	6	Jordan Harvey
7	Jordan Harvey	7	Sheanon Williams
8	Sheanon Williams	8	Michael Orozco Fiscal
9	Michael Orozco Fiscal	9	Roger Torres
10	Juan Diego Gonzalez	10	Fred
11	Eduardo Coudet	11	Alejandro Moreno
12	Fred	12	Stefani Miglioranzi
13	Alejandro Moreno	13	Shea Salinas
14	Stefani Miglioranzi	14	Kyle Nakazawa
15	Shea Salinas	15	Juan Diego Gonzalez
16	Kyle Nakazawa	16	Eduardo Coudet
17	Toni Stahl	17	Toni Stahl
18	Chris Seitz	18	Chris Seitz
19	Nick Zimmerman	19	Nick Zimmerman
20	Cristian Arrieta	20	Cristian Arrieta
21	J.T. Noone	21	J.T. Noone

1. Sebastien Le Toux (Expansion Draft):

He is the ideal star player for any sports team. It goes without saying that he is the least likely player to be left unprotected, but it is worth listing his qualities.

a. He should have been a finalist for MVP. Could have won it all if they team had performed better.

b. He shattered an MLS record for percentage involvement with a team’s goals at 71.4% (previous record: 61.1%)

c. He is extremely productive (14 goals, 11 assists)

d. He is unselfish (11 assists)

e. He can play midfield or forward

f. He runs. EVERYWHERE. ALL GAME.

g. He is 26 years old

h. He plays defense, even as a forward.

i. He mentors our young, high-ceiling forwards

2. Danny Califf (Free Agent Signing):

When Califf returned to the MLS from Europe, Philadelphia quickly traded up in their allocation ranking (sort of like a waiver wire position) and selected Danny to captain the expansion Philadelphia Union. Let’s not kid ourselves here, though. Danny had a bad season. Part of this was due to an attacking style of defense employed by Peter Nowak. Park of this was due to a revolving door of players starting in the backline with him (not to mention goalkeeper). Part of this was perhaps due to him trying to do to much by himself to beef up the defense. With all those excuses, though, too many of his mistakes were mental in which he lost track of an attacker, double-teamed at the wrong time, or, worst of all, mis-cleared the ball in a lack-of-focus manner. However, by all accounts Califf has been an excellent leader and locker room presence, and we all know that he has the potential to be great. From a proven performer, I’d much rather have the mental mistakes then see him physically getting beat as he enters his 30’s. Combining his captain status, his potential, and Philadelphia’s lack of depth on defense, Califf will not be left unprotected.

3. Roger Torres (Loaned to Philadelphia):

Philadelphia still has to decide if they want to extend Roger’s loan, purchase his contract outright, or let him return to his old team (the two former choices obviously have to be approved by the loaning team), but either way Roger is the obvious protectee of the international class. Whether Philadelphia has to protect 3 players or just 1, Roger is the standout of the group. If the Union dosen’t have to protect any, then he drops in my rankings to 9^th, but he still makes the 11-player-cut. Torres is a young and dynamic attacking midfielder. He hasn’t shown enough of the full package to be a regular starter but he is a popular late-game sub when Philadelphia is losing or tied and looking to go ahead. The more experience and training this 19-yr-old gets, the more he could wind up being the full-game right wing midfielder we are hoping he is. He definitely has the greatest upside of the international pool so he is very likely to be protected.

4. Brad Knighton (Expansion Draft):

Brad won over the starting goalkeeper position the hard way. He rode the bench behind Chris Seitz most of the season. In his first start, giving Seitz a day off, Knighton fumbled an easy play, and then he got himself ejected by taking the attacker out in a desperate attempt to save the goal. He continued to wait patiently and then he got a full start during a friendly game against Mexican powerhouse Chivas de Guadalajara. Knighton made some spectacular saves and gave Philadelphia a high-profile shutout (a statistic Seitz was never able to duplicate). The following match Seitz single-handedly gave away a win against Kansas City and the match after that Knighton was given his chance to seize the starting position. He did so by posting the Union’s first MLS shutout of the franchise. I’ve seen some speculation that neither goalkeeper will be protected, but given how sick I get thinking that Seitz would get his job back by default should Knighton be plucked, I would think the Union’s coaching staff would feel similarly.

Why the change:

Brad moved up 5 spots from the last time I projected these protections simply because that article was written immediately after Seitz’s Kansas City error and before Knighton was announced as the next game’s starter. It was unclear who would be the starter at that point.

5. Andrew Jacobson (Expansion Draft):

Jacobson has been a solid and, at times, dynamic center midfielder. His main charge is being more of a defensive midfielder, as that tends to be the system Philadelphia plays with at least one of its center midfielders, but the fluid, attacking system the Union employ requires all those involved to play multiple roles should the situation require it. Andrew does well. He and fellow center midfielder Stefani Miglioranzi play similar styles with Andrew being a little more dynamic and Miglioranzi being a little more consistent. That being said, when I’m looking at changes to a 14^th place team, I’m not necessarily looking for consistency unless that position is consistently excellent (which our midfield is not). Combine that with Jacobson’s age at 25 and Miglioranzi at 33 and Jacobson seems the more important defensive central midfielder to keep.

Why the change:

At the time the other article was written (8 ranks lower), I had seen little spark from Jacobson and I felt as if Jacobson and Miglioranzi were relatively interchangeable. I felt that Andrew picked up his game considerably (especially from his powerful outside shots) and was deserving of a protection slot.

6. Justin Mapp (Mid-season Trade with Chicago):

I like Justin’s play so much that I would’ve bumped him up another spot, but seeing as Nowak doesn’t like to leave him in for a complete game I had to relegate him to 6^th. Mapp filled a need we had at left wing and he brings tremendous amounts of speed and experience to the table despite still being in his mid-20’s. He picked up Nowak’s style of fluid, attacking, multi-role-midfielders exceptionally quickly and blended right in. He has also been productive since joining the Union and he has had plenty of honors bestowed on him from his time in Chicago so we know the guy can play at this level for more than one season. I don’t see how Philadelphia can let this guy go unprotected.

7. Jordan Harvey (Expansion Draft):

Harvey is the only Philadelphia player to play in all 30 games (started 29). Some other writers and fans that I’ve talked to get down on this guy because his offensive production slowed down as the season progressed. Remember this though: Harvey is a Defender. I’m always amazed at how little those who didn’t specialize playing defense struggle to recognize it when it’s good but lacks flash. Jordan does a lot of little things right. He recognizes overlapping runs well, he usually does a good job tracking attackers so as not to be caught out of position, he rarely gives the ball away, and he runs like a midfielder to support the offense. Often times, even though he doesn’t touch the ball, he’ll make an overlapping run to peel away a defender, which opens space up for the ball carrier and his passing options. He isn’t a spectacular defender and, like everyone else, he should be given competition for his starting job, but if we wanted to leave him unprotected and hope he goes unnoticed, then we probably shouldn’t have given Vancouver and Portland 30 games of film to view his potential.

Why the change:

Jordan’s drop of 3 spots was not a result of his own performance, but merely a reevaluation in which I felt other players were more valuable. He’ll still make the cut.

8. Sheanon Williams (Mid-Season Rookie Free-Agent Signing):

Sheanon spent the majority of the season on Philadelphia’s minor league affiliate team, the Harrisburg Islanders. Players on these teams are like practice squad members for the NFL in which they can be claimed by a major league team without the former team’s consent. Late in the season, New York tried him out at their team practice but they passed on him. The result of this tryout though, I’m guessing, was a red flag to Philadelphia that Williams might need major league protection. Since the Union had an open roster spot, they decided to sign Sheanon to the big leagues. That’s when it really took off for him. With Juan Diego Gonzalez and Toni Stahl nursing minor injuries, Shea Salinas still rehabbing his major injury, and Cristian Arrieta apparently feuding with Peter Nowak (I only heard of this a week ago. For all I know it isn’t true), Sheanon was immediately given his first start at right fullback. He didn’t let go of that role. He was electric, creating pressure with his offensive capabilities even out of the backfield (he played much of his life as a forward). Also helping his cause was his monstrous throws which makes every throw-in from the corner a scoring opportunity that didn’t otherwise exist. He’s still a little raw with his defensive abilities and his ability to play for an entire MLS season at a high level is far from tested, but he was the first player out of numerous attempts to seize control of Philadelphia’s right back position. His upside would certainly draw the attention of MLS’s expansion teams if left unprotected.

Why the change: (enormous change)

At the time I wrote the last article, Williams had been announced as signed while I was composing it. I had no idea he would be starting in the following game.

9. Michael Orozco Fiscal (Loaned to Philadelphia):

Michael is probably lower on my list than on most others. It’s true that he has played more than any of his teammates except Harvey and he was the most offensively, statistically, productive defender on the team. Assuming though, that Michael returns to the team on extension of his loan or having his contract purchased, his position may still be in jeopardy. I consider getting a big, strong center back to play alongside Califf to be the number one offseason priority of the Union. If they do, where does that leave Orozco? At 5’9’’ Michael is not big enough to help stem the tide of set-piece goals we give up. He was literally pushed out of the way by Edson Buddle on one of L.A.’s goals against us. Michael is versatile enough to play elsewhere, but he wasn’t terribly effective while playing right back in the pre-Sheanon days nor is he likely to be more effective at left back than the left-footed Harvey. He’s not going to replace the team captain Califf on a regular basis. He was likewise ineffective in the midfield for the season’s opener.

Those are the negatives, but he has many positives. He does have very good potential and has played on the international stage for the U.S. He can play center or outside back (or try again at defensive midfielder). He scored two goals for us, one of which was an absolutely gorgeous header off a corner kick. We also can’t guarantee that we’ll get the center back I’m hoping for, so since we have so little depth on defense, he’d be a sorely missed loss (even if we do get that center back, Michael would still be our only effective depth). He will likely still be protected, but it’s not a lock.

Why the change:

Michael dropped 5 places because I started noticing Michael’s lack of physical presence, because Sheanon Williams joined the team and played so well, and because the defense really did give up too many goals (even with Nowak’s attacking system).

10. Fred (Pre-Season Trade with D.C.):

Fred has been a nice attacking midfield presence for us. He’s played on the wing and in the center with equally effective results. He hasn’t been as productive (statistically) as he should be with 4 goals (1 game-winning) and 1 assist in 25 games, but he’s been just one piece in an inconsistent offense that always created scoring opportunities but couldn’t put the ball in the net enough. He’s a big part of our offense but he’s not irreplaceable and being 31 years old on this team makes him over-the-hill. If Philadelphia only has to protect one international player, I think Fred will be protected, but if Philly has to protect 3 internationals, I think he will be left off the list.

Why the change:

Fred drops 5 places largely because I considered his position from a different angle. With Jacobson already protected, I figure we have two other high-valued but expendable center midfielders left in Fred and Stefani Miglioranzi. If one of them is taken in the expansion draft (in the case both are unprotected), we can subsequently protect the other one (per the rules of the expansion draft). For good measure, we also have Sebastien Le Toux (who plays MF as well as forward), Amobi Okugo, Kyle Nakazawa, Eduardo Coudet (who would be protected in the scenario that Fred wasn’t), and possibly J.T. Noone as backups and depth to the center midfield position should we lose them both. Fred also might scare teams away with his relatively large salary (he is the highest paid Union player).

11. Alejandro Moreno (Expansion Draft):

Moreno ranks this high not out of personal preference but out of uncertainty of Nowak’s preference of Alejandro. My position is that Moreno finds himself in a crowded numbers game at the forward position with Sebastien Le Toux, Danny Mwanga, and Jack McInerney. He is 31 years old (and looks 35) and doesn’t have the speed I’d expect from a forward. He scored only 2 goals in 26 games, but finished second on the team in assists with 7 (Le Toux rocked both categories).

On the other hand, Peter Nowak played him an awful lot this season. Possibly it was to give the younger forwards Mwanga and McInerney more time to develop (Nowak timed this perfectly for Mwanga) before being thrust as starters. Still, when Danny Califf was given a day off late in the season, it was Moreno wearing the Captain’s armband on the field. So who knows what Nowak will do? It is worth mentioning that Moreno is an excellent holding forward which is a role I think only Le Toux is capable of performing in his absence (and perhaps not even as good as Alejandro).

Why the change:

When I saw Moreno wearing the Captain’s armband as mentioned above, I started to reconsider whether the Philadelphia front office would let him go.

12. Stefani Miglioranzi (Expansion Draft):

Stefani has been a great and dependable defensive center midfielder. He isn’t flashy but he does what he is supposed to do which is to distribute the ball and provide the defense with midfield support up the middle. Unfortunately for him, he’s 33, he’s similar in style to Andrew Jacobson (though Stefani is more polished), and his starting position is challenged by several young-ins waiting in the wings for their chance including first round draft pick Amobi Okugo. I predict that Stefani is the most likely player to be taken away in the expansion draft as his strong and experienced presence in the center of the midfield would be attractive to any young team (which is why we took him).

13. Shea Salinas (Expansion Draft):

Shea has shown moments of brilliance this year including a Goal of the Week honors which has a better-than-even chance of winning Goal of the Year (it earned my vote) being voted on now. Unfortunately, just as he was beginning to break into the lineup, he suffered an injury that sidelined him for over a month. When he came back, I never really saw much of that spark I saw previously (with the sole exception of a thundering outside shot (which didn’t score) taken in the last weeks of the season). Shea may also be a likely candidate to leave, but with so little exposure, he just isn’t worth a protection slot unless we are granted a 12^th because someone else on our roster was plucked.

Why the change:

Shea dropped because the optimism I carried with me through his injury dropped off when he came back and wasn’t the same.

14. Kyle Nakazawa (Rookie Draft, 3^rd Round):

Kyle’s upside is simply that he has a deadly accurate free kick (most of the time) on a team that struggles to score on set pieces. His downside is, so far, that that’s the only characteristic with which he ranks higher than his teammate competition. He’s a rookie though. Give him a veteran offseason and let’s see how he improves. But I wouldn’t bother protecting him.

Why the change:

Kyle went down because I doubted his appeal to Vancouver and Portland with so little exposure to the MLS. He also went down because other players went up.

15. Juan Diego Gonzalez Alzate (Mid-Season Free Agent Signing):

Gonzalez was a band-aid over a gaping defensive wound. He played one excellent game and the other 6 were mediocre. He has been effectively replaced by Sheanon Williams and is unlikely to claim a regular starting job if returning to Philadelphia next season. He’ll only get protected if rules say 3 international players must be protected.

Why the change:

Change in expected international protection rules

16. Eduardo Coudet (Mid-Season Free Agent Signing):

This 36 year old startled me with his speed, endurance, and physical play, for his age, in his first few games. Hence, why he used to rank 3^rd (of course that was also assuming 3 international players would be protected) for me. Then he got injured and his age came back to mind. If the Union needs to protect 3 international players then he has a chance of being protected. If the Union needs to protect less than 3, he has no chance.

Why the change:

Like I said, his injury showed his age. He also has a crowded position and with fewer international protection requirements, he doesn’t provide much reason to be protected.

17. Toni Stahl (Rookie Draft, 2^nd Round):

You’d think being both an international player and being a rookie would bring him higher on this list, but Toni has been a huge bust for the organization and is exempt from the rookie-expectations-buffer for the following reason: He is 25. Twenty five is still a young age, but not for a rookie, certainly not for a rookie in soccer (I think he played in Finland before coming to MLS). He is tied for the 10^th oldest player out of the 24 guys on the team (I didn’t break down months and days, just the listed age on the web site).

Stahl was given an opening day start at center back but was ejected for receiving two yellow cards by the 42^nd minute of the game. This forced the Union to play down a man for most of the game while behind in the score. Toni never saw the field again in MLS play for the entire season. If that doesn’t scream ‘un-protectable’ then I don’t know what does. His only chance to be on the protected list is if we are required to protect 3 international players and Stahl is deemed more valuable than Coudet.

Why the change:

I assumed that Toni would get more playing opportunities when the Union was officially eliminated from the playoff race, but when that didn’t happen I realized his value to the club was valueless.

18. Chris Seitz (Pre-season Trade with Salt Lake):

The loser in a goalkeeper competition, Chris is unlikely to be protected by the Union. If he is still on the roster this off-season, he has every opportunity to win his job back, but for now I think Brad Knighton has control of the starting role. Chris failed to record a single shutout in MLS play. This wasn’t all his fault, but I think a goalkeeper who makes all, but only, the saves they are supposed to is a sub-par keeper. A good keeper makes some spectacular saves. A great keeper (Tim Howard) makes many. I rarely saw Seitz pleasantly surprise me, so I’m glad to see the changing of the guard. Seitz is a possible candidate for expansion plucking, but who really cares?

Why the change:

Lost the goalkeeper battle.

19. Nick Zimmerman (Expansion Draft):

Barely played this season. 8 games played, 1 start (post-playoff-contention). 159 minutes played. Nuff said.

20. Cristian Arrieta (Early-Season Free Agent Signing):

When Arrieta first joined the team, he filled in at right fullback in place of the released David Myrie. He had a couple of productive games early, but lacked the offensive strength required of fullbacks in Nowak’s system and he made some mental mistakes on defense that cost the Union goals. As they had absolutely no defensive depth at that point, Peter Nowak experimented by putting Arrieta at center back and Orozco at right fullback, but Arrieta continued to disappoint. When Gonzalez was signed, Arrieta’s season was effectively over. I’ve read that both Arrieta and Nowak want him (Arrieta) off the Union next season, but the only source I know is from a blog which may or may not be credible (maybe there’s a reason why a smallish blog had an ‘exclusive’ on this story). Nonetheless, he doesn’t provide any value to the team as a super-reserve and won’t be protected.

I saw a disturbing number of other people’s protectee predictions (alliteration totally intended) that listed Cristian amongst them. What? Did they stop watching halfway through the season? That’s comparable to saying that Kyle Kendrick, for the Phillies, is guaranteed to be on the major league squad next season as a starting pitcher.

21. J.T. Noone (Mid-Season Rookie Free Agent Signing):

I’m rooting for J.T. because he’s the local boy of the team. He starred at Temple University after growing up in Harrisburg (and then playing for the Union-affiliate Harrisburg Islanders). However, despite having a major league contract, J.T. never saw the field in MLS play. He was statistically productive during pre-season for the Union, but he didn’t make the team initially. Eventually the Union decided to reward him with a major league contract. Still, not going to protect someone you haven’t wanted to play.

Not Participating

1. Danny Mwanga (Rookie Draft, 1^st overall pick):

Danny was completely snubbed for Rookie of the Year. Nonetheless, Mwanga looks like he has the potential to be one of the most dynamic forwards in the MLS over the next few years. Danny’s mid-season shoulder separation limited his production at the end of the season, but a full off-season should see him back to form for 2011. The Union made a significant investment in him and it is paying off. Word came out this evening that he will not graduate from the Generation Adidas program, so we do not have to protect him (or pay him out of our salary cap).

2. Jack McInerney (Rookie Draft, 7^th overall pick):

Jack, at 18 years old, shows a lot of promise but is not ready for the starting gig. His size doesn’t help him much at 5’9’’. He is, however, very fast and has a nose for the goal. He is a popular late-game-sub when the team is down or looking to break a tie because his speed roughs up wearied defenses and he has dynamic, goal-scoring capabilities. Jack scored 3 goals this season, which isn’t bad given his playing time (350 minutes) in 17 games played (1 start). It has been widely speculated that Jack will continue to develop and that if/when Mwanga tries his luck in Europe, McInerney will be ready to take his place.

3. Amobi Okugo (Rookie Draft, 6^th overall pick):

Amobi has been a bit of a disappointment this season. I haven’t seen much composure from him during the time he’s received to play. In particular, his multiple misplays to give away the lone goal against Manchester United, in a friendly that ended as a 1-0 loss for Philadelphia, is burned into my memory. In that play, he not only made a stupid pass that was intercepted by a streaking ManU player, but he decided to be the third man in on a TRIPLE-team on the ball-carrier instead of covering his only passing option (who scored the goal), who, moments before, had been running right next to Okugo.

Still, the center midfield position is probably the hardest position on the pitch to learn. Okugo still has a ton of upside, and he showed some skills on certain plays that struggle to make it past my ManU memory.