by Chris Sherman
Record: 5-11-6 (15th place)
11 pts back from final wildcard spot
The Philadelphia Union has had a pretty good streak going with two wins and a draw in the last three games (2 league matches). These performances were largely thanks to the work of Justin Mapp and Jack McInerney, both of whom are really pushing the coaching staff for more playing time. The victories included a friendly win against high-profile Mexican club Chivas de Guadalajara and a comeback win against the New England Revolution to give Philadelphia their first ever series-win by taking 4 out of a possible 6 points against the Revs. The draw was a letdown against the Kansas City Wizards as the Union had struck first and played very well defensively.
I’ve seen some writers say that if Philadelphia had gotten a win against the Wizards they would be back in the playoff picture, but let’s not kid ourselves here. I’m thrilled they’re doing better, but the 8th place rank (final wildcard spot) is on pace to be about 42 points. Philadelphia currently sits with 21 points with eight games remaining and is losing tiebreakers with 12 out of the 15 other teams. Based on this information, Philadelphia would likely have to win at least 7 of their final 8 games to just barely make it into the playoffs. With so many games left, Philadelphia is still far from being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but realistically, 11 points is a heck of a deficit to overcome at this point. On the other hand, the Union is only 6 points out of 9th place and it would really reinvigorate the players and the fan base for next year if Philadelphia could outrank more than just pathetic D.C. United (who are 6 points behind us. Everybody laugh).
So it’s not a bad idea to start looking ahead. It’s easy to forget that, while Philly is the youngest member of the MLS, they will look a little older as two new expansion teams from Portland and Vancouver join Major League Soccer for next season. This means that up to two players from Philadelphia could be plucked during November’s (I’m assuming the month) expansion draft.
In that spirit, I’ve broken down by rank the players most likely to be one of the 11 players protected (assuming the draft rules are the same as the preceding two years).
Before getting to the list, though, there are certain players exempt from this process and others that require special consideration that I will explain here.
Generation Adidas Players:
Among the many club privileges of employing players with the status of ‘Generation Adidas’ is that these players are automatically exempt from the expansion draft. This means that none of last year’s first-round picks in Danny Mwanga, Amobi Okugo, and Jack McInerney have to be protected to stay with the team. Woo-hoo! That’s three more players we get to protect somewhere else.
Players on Loan:
Unfortunately, two good players for the Union are only here on loan from other non-MLS clubs. These two players are midfielder Roger Torres and defender Michael Orozco Fiscal. The terms of player loans are kept secret from the public per MLS policies, so for the purposes of this exercise we have to assume that neither of these players will be back competing for Philadelphia in 2011 and do not need to be protected.
If they were to remain on the team (and hence need to be protected), I would place Torres at #3 in between Califf and Coudet on the following list and I would place Orozco Fiscal at #4 (#5 if Torres remains as well) in between Coudet and Harvey.
International Players:
MLS has special protection rules for clubs in regards to their international players. This is presumably an attempt to keep clubs from flooding the draft pool with international players, only some of whom the expansion clubs are allowed to take. The one-sentence-explanation is that clubs must protect all but one of their international players with a maximum requirement of three (confused? So was I. MLS roster rules are complex and difficult to understand). The Philadelphia Union has four players with ‘international’ status in Roger Torres, Eduardo Coudet, Toni Stahl, and Juan Diego González. As stated in the prior paragraph, we will assume that Torres will not be re-loaned to the Union. What this all means for Philadelphia is that we are required to protect 2 out of the 3 remaining international players assuming all three are still on the roster by the time of the expansion draft.
Here is my ranking list. Remember, that this ranks players MOST LIKELY to be protected, not necessarily a rank of the best players:
1. FW/MF: Sebastien Le Toux
Sebastien has already registered 10 goals and 10 assists in the twenty games he has played. That means that he has directly contributed in 20 out of the entire team’s 26 collective goals. His name is always mentioned in MVP candidate conversations, even though the team is in 15th place. He is productive, hard working, unselfish with the ball, a fan favorite, and 26 years old. He is protected.
2. DF: Danny Califf
Danny may not be having the season of his dreams, but the idea that Peter Nowak would name him captain and then in the following season leave him unprotected is unthinkable. Add in that this defense could lose Michael Orozco Fiscal and should already be looking to upgrade the other center-back position, and Nowak can’t afford to let Califf be plucked.
3. MF: Eduardo Coudet
You may be wondering why this 35-year-old mid-season acquisition gets such a high place on this list, but it is largely based on his international status that makes him so obvious a protectee. Coudet has also been very effective in controlling the center of the midfield competing with younger men. This makes him top the other two international players in their future value to the club.
4. DF: Jordan Harvey
Harvey is the only Philadelphia player to have played in all 22 games this season (started 21 of them) and with the exception of one match (in the game prior to his one non-start) he has been a solid presence. He fits into Nowak’s team strategy of offensively aggressive fullbacks very well. In the friendly against CD Guadalajara he ripped a nice shot off on goal when the Mexican team’s defense nearly lost track of him. Especially with the lack of defensive depth on the Union, I can’t imagine Peter Nowak will gamble on Harvey’s Philadelphia affiliation after he has had so much league-wide exposure.
5. MF: Fred
I might have dropped him a spot in my personal rankings, but Nowak plays him so much that I can’t imagine him being any lower in Nowak’s personal rankings. Fred is great one-on-one and can play anywhere in the midfield. I’m not wild about how many touches he takes, particularly in the opponents’ box, but I still want and expect him to be with Philadelphia next season.
6. MF: Justin Mapp
Oh man has this guy come on strong lately. In the last three games, Mapp has had a hand in all four of the Union goals (although he may not have been credited with an assist against Kansas City) and some of those came while subbing in off the bench. He was a mid-season traded-for acquisition from Chicago after it looked like he would no longer get much playing time there and he has really revitalized his career in the last couple of weeks. It is a good thing too, because Mapp is still only 25 years old despite being in his ninth MLS year. He is a former MLS “Best XI” player and has appeared 8 times for the USMNT. He has a tremendously high ceiling and should become a regular starter as an outside midfielder so I imagine he will remain protected.
7. MF: Kyle Nakazawa
Kyle was the Union’s 2010 3rd round draft pick (33rd overall). He has been getting more and more playing time as of late which is what brings him this high on the list. His biggest upside is his deadly accuracy on free kicks, which, in my opinion, is Philadelphia’s greatest weakness as far as scoring more goals when dominating pace of play. If he can play a little better in other aspects of the game he could really push for starts and isn’t worth giving up in the expansion draft.
8. DF/MF: Toni Stahl
Philadelphia’s 2010 2nd round draft pick (17th overall), Toni has been in Peter Nowak’s doghouse ever since he picked up a first half red card in the season opener against Seattle. Stahl started that game at center back but after his ejection hasn’t seen the pitch in an MLS match in any of the following 21 games. While he may be a rookie, he is 25 years old and hails from Finland making him of international status. His international status is what makes him a likely protectee, however, it would not be surprising to me if he is traded or gets cut before the expansion draft occurs. I hope he gets more playing time towards the end of the season to see what he is worth, but my feeling is that if he is on the team he will be protected.
9. GK: Brad Knighton
Brad’s fortunes may have shifted significantly in the last week. Brad had an outstanding 8 saves against Chivas de Guadalajara to record a shutout-win against a high-profile Mexican club as well as half a shutout against Manchester United (former 3rd-string GK Brian Perk played the other half of the shutout). Chris Seitz, the starter, has yet to record a single shutout and performed miserably when trying to hold a lead this week against Kansas City. As far as I know, Brad is still the backup GK, which will confuse readers as to why he ranks higher than who he is backing up. The reason is this: I think that if Brad wins the starting job in the next few weeks, the Union may not bother to protect Seitz, and if Seitz holds on to the job through the end of the season, they both could be protected as off-season insurance should Seitz’s game continue to stay mediocre.
10. GK: Chris Seitz
Just a week ago when I originally drew up this list, I had Seitz at number 2, but the events of the last two games have dramatically clouded his future. The goalkeeper position is like the quarterback position in football. They need to play with confidence to be effective so you don’t want too much controversy. However, Seitz has yet to record a shutout in 21 starts and single-handedly gave up the win against Kansas City by misplaying a free kick. Combine that with the outstanding play of backup GK Brad Knighton against CD Guadalajara and there could be a legitimate battle for starting goalkeeper. If Seitz can’t hold the starting job, I don’t see Philadelphia wasting a protection slot on him when they can pick up a backup goalkeeper relatively easily.
11. MF/DF: Shea Salinas
I was torn for a while as for how to rank Shea and Stefani Miglioranzi (next) particularly since it could come down to only one of these players being protected. Ultimately I chose Shea because I think his style of play would work perfectly as an outside back in Peter Nowak’s system and with the assumption that we will need him to replace Orozco Fiscal should he leave. This 24-yr-old was starting to really shine and get more playing time including winning an AT&T Goal-of-the-Week award until he suffered a stress fracture mid-season and hasn’t yet returned to the pitch. He is expected to return in the next couple of weeks so we will have a chance to see if he meets my expectations. It’s a tough call but I don’t want to see him leave and become the next Sebastien Le Toux for Vancouver or Portland.
12. MF: Stefani Miglioranzi
Stefani has been a very strong force in the center of our midfield and it would be tough to let him go, but I had to rank him down at #12 because at age 32, we’re probably already looking at his full potential (as well as the reasons for Salinas above). Since the team will likely keep Coudet, who is also a strong central midfielder, and Nowak is trying to develop rookie Amobi Okogo into a center midfielder, Miglioranzi might be the odd man out. If he ends up not being protected, I hope he gets overlooked in the expansion draft, but we’ll have to wait and see.
13. MF: Andrew Jacobson
Andrew is another strong contributor who ranks outside my 11 picks. Unfortunately, every team is going to have to leave good players unprotected, or expansion teams would never get off the ground. Jacobson has been something of a often used spot-starter. He has played both in the center and on the wing of the midfield, but I haven’t seen anything special from him yet. To me this makes him a great reserve midfielder, but we have other players in greater need of protection.
14. FW: Alejandro Moreno
Moreno has been excellent all season, but the Union has become VERY deep at the forward position with Le Toux, Mwanga, and the recent emergence of McInerney. I think Moreno will continue to get a lot of playing time (though I’d rather see the others) this season but Alejandro is 31 years old, isn’t all that fast, and is stuck in a numbers game.
15. DF: Juan Diego Gonzalez
I originally had Gonzalez ranked a little lower, but he really played an outstanding game against Kansas City this week. If he plays at that level for the rest of the season he will be a must-protect player and we can leave out Toni Stahl. However, if he plays at the level he played in his previous 5 starts, the Union should be looking elsewhere for a new strong center back. Going on his first 5 starts, he was merely a band-aid over a gaping wound, which is why he was the obvious international-status player to leave unprotected. Everything for him depends on the next few weeks.
16. DF: Cristian Arrieta
Once a regular starter, Arrieta hasn’t played in an MLS match for quite some time following a series of lousy defensive games and the acquisition of Juan Diego Gonzalez. He was a pleasant surprise early in the season as an outside back (probably being the initial reason why Toni Stahl stopped getting to play), but really struggled when he was moved into the center (as Orozco Fiscal was moved outside to take advantage of his better offensive skills). As a reserve defensive player, I don’t see him getting protected despite the team’s lack of depth there.
17. MF: Nick Zimmerman
Nick has played in 7 MLS matches (no starts) and therefore is understandably unprotectable. When he has gotten the opportunity to play, I haven’t seen much from him, so I would be perfectly content if he was plucked.
18. MF: J.T. Noone
Our resident local boy, this former Temple star and Harrisburg resident didn’t make the team initially. Despite having a productive pre-season as a trialist, he was assigned to play for Philadelphia’s affiliate minor league team, the Harrisburg City Islanders. However, he played well enough there that the Union decided to reward him with a major league contract. He still hasn’t played in an MLS game yet so I would be shocked if he were taken when left unprotected.
19. MF/DF: Sheanon Williams
The most recent signee of the team, Sheanon was also brought up from the Harrisburg City Islanders. It is possible that he was signed to protect him because the New York Red Bulls were sniffing around him. Nonetheless, without any MLS playing time, I highly doubt either Vancouver or Portland will use one of their 10 expansion draft selections on him.
Philadelphia Independence:
Philadelphia’s expansion women’s professional soccer team has, despite their best efforts, managed to clinch both a playoff berth and a home game. After their three consecutive losses, though, the Independence’s only chance at getting a first-round bye is if Boston loses their next match AND Philadelphia defeats FC Gold Pride (far and away the best team in the league). Nonetheless, as with many sports, once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen, so get ready to get pumped for these women to try and bring a championship to Philly in their first year.
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